Theorem (Aumann, 1976)

Let (N,Y,(i)iN,𝔰,𝐏)(N, Y, (\mathcal{F}_i)_{i \in N}, \mathfrak{s}, \mathbf{P}) be an Aumann model of incomplete information with beliefs, and suppose n=2n=2 (i.e. 2 players). Let AYA \subseteq Y be an event and let ωY\omega \in Y be a state of the world. If the event "Player I ascribes probability qIq_\textrm{I} to AA" is common knowledge in ω\omega, and the event "Player II ascribes probability qIIq_\textrm{II} to AA" is also common knowledge in ω\omega, then qI=qIIq_\textrm{I} = q_\textrm{II}.


References

  1. M. Maschler, E. Solan, and Shmuel Zamir, Game Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2013, p. 339.
  2. Robert J. Aumann, The Annals of Statistics, Vol. 4, No. 6 (Nov., 1976), pp. 1236-1239. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2958591
  3. https://www.princeton.edu/~bayesway/Dick.tex.pdf
  4. https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2014/10/30/information-cascades-and-aumanns-agreement-theorem/
  5. https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/aumann-s-agreement-theorem
  6. https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=2410